Evaluate competing explanations of historical change
The idea
A causal explanation needs a mechanism linking a proposed cause to an outcome.
Step by step
- A causal explanation needs a mechanism linking a proposed cause to an outcome.
- Two changes occurring together do not by themselves establish causation.
- Compare cases and alternatives, and revise claims when counterexamples limit their scope.
Example
A road cuts travel time, reducing spoilage and allowing more goods to reach a market. What is described?
Answer
a causal mechanism is described
The account links the road to trade through travel time and spoilage.
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Use invented records about roads and trade to write a qualified causal claim and identify an alternative explanation.
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